Spring and Fall Markets in Lincoln 2004-2016, 1 of 4: Is it Trump?

Posted on Posted in Lincoln, Market News, Marketing & Selling

Is the Presidential Election Causing a Slow Fall Lincoln Real Estate Market?

So much to parse in the data set we pulled from MLS sales data here! This data is broken into market seasons: Single family homes in Lincoln listed either between December 1 and May 31 (Spring) and June 1- November 30 (Fall). This enables us to look at trends over time, as well as the detail hiding in the spring vs. fall markets. In this blog series, we’ll look at four aspects of this data, the first was the question that caused us to pull this data in the first place.

We were interested to see whether a Presidential election seemed to have a big impact on market indicators. Things have been very quiet this season, with lingering listings and few buyers around. Maybe it’s because of the election? Election years are noted in red, and it would appear that there isn’t that much variation in between the election fall and the spring seasons on either side. It doesn’t look like national elections have had much impact on the Lincoln real estate market over the last three presidential elections. 

So maybe this election is so destabilizing that it is effecting the market, or maybe there’s something else afoot? Other market indicators show positive trends, but more on that later!

Season Average Days to Offer # of Houses listed Average Sale Price List to sale ratio Square Feet
S2004 62 28 $1,103,062 95.0% 3349
F2004 67 21 $1,249,690 96.0% 2933
S2005 58 31 $1,337,147 95.6% 3704
F2005 129 23 $1,602,696 95.5% 4431
S2006 96 28 $1,102,955 94.6% 3648
F2006 126 20 $1,295,075 93.9% 3630
S2007 88 25 $1,164,920 98.2% 3521
F2007 45 10 $1,093,250 92.7% 3195
S2008 111 30 $1,188,028 92.9% 3551
F2008 136 21 $1,003,414 92.9% 3074
S2009 161 24 $1,043,741 92.8% 3638
F2009 59 20 $979,498 93.9% 2865
S2010 96 17 $1,025,482 93.1% 3653
F2010 138 17 $1,044,438 94.9% 3680
S2011 115 22 $1,015,791 95.6% 3645
F2011 202 21 $1,189,357 94.6% 4207
S2012 73 35 $1,023,994 94.5% 3458
F2012 61 24 $981,073 96.4% 3600
S2013 78 24 $1,272,163 95.0% 3770
F2013 82 22 $1,140,792 96.5% 3509
S2014 39 31 $1,081,469 98.3% 3352
F2014 60 25 $990,740 97.4% 3034
S2015 92 27 $1,216,033 95.8% 4004
F2015 71 24 $1,178,313 96.4% 3596
S2016 31 26 $1,380,702 97.7% 3791

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *